Last month, the US military issued a "hit list" of suspected drug kingpins. This is part of the new NATO strategy to fight drug dealers who provide finances to Taliban. This is a noble and potentially powerful idea, but as a strategy, it is incomplete.
Corrupt Afghan officials will oppose the new policy and likely undermine the effort, while powerful drug cartels in the region will take up arms against NATO troops. US must devise a comprehensive strategy that cuts off drugs as a source of the Taliban's money while anticipating the military and terrorist backlash.
The new approach to combat drugs mafia will open a new front for foreign troops, which will complicate the ongoing counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan. NATO's initial policy of not dealing with drug traffickers after the fall of Taliban has strengthened drug industry in Afghanistan.
Over a period, drug traffickers have gone into a tacit agreement with Taliban in areas of their influence. Since 2003, substantial income from Narcotics-business is finding its way into the movement of Taliban, which has given strength to insurgency in Afghanistan.
Besides, their strong links with Taliban they have maintained their true representation in government of Afghanistan at all levels. Any policy of development and combating insurgency would never work if US rules out the existence of drugs mafia in these areas and do not work towards getting them on board; none of the developmental project will materialize and will make counterinsurgency efforts more challenging.
Narcotics business is booming in Afghanistan under the umbrella of Taliban, which is providing major finance to their insurgency against foreign troops. According to recent UN figures, Taliban is receiving about $ 100 million USD a year from the narcotics business, which is approximately 45% of their 'insurgency budget'.
Now, the Taliban is using poppy production as a political tool to gain advantage over the local population. They present themselves as 'protectors' of vulnerable poppy farmers and engage in local power play by creating allies out of local power holders who grow and trade poppy. There is a need to think about a policy that would help to interdict the flow of money from drug producers to Taliban, which has created a true challenge for United States and its allies operating against insurgents.
The existing link between the narcotics industry and the Taliban must not distract US and its allies from the much more threatening systematic link between drugs and governance through corruption in Afghanistan.
Obviously, the drugs industry poses a threat to Afghan institutions as well as its economy by creating a parallel economy that corrupts every level of national institutions. Political will is the real missing dimension from Afghan national counter-narcotics strategy. This is partly due to Afghanistan political complexities, but also because of the United States and NATO contradictory strategies towards drugs problem in early years of global war on terror.
Afghanistan became the world's number one country in opium production in 2007-2008 by producing 90% of the world's opium under the nose of United States and NATO forces operating against Taliban. Situation would have been different if targeting drug labs as well as drugs mafia would have been essential part of United States and NATO forces' mandate right from the outset of ongoing campaign against Taliban.
Policy of abstaining to take action against drug traffickers and concentrating only on counterinsurgency operations provided them with an opportunity to flourish, gain more strength and pose a potent threat to NATO and the US forces.
The long-awaited policy of United States and NATO officials to interdict drug facilities and facilitators would intensify the prevailing security situation in Afghanistan by inviting backlash of strong drug industry in short-term.
However, pursuance of this policy to go after drug facilities and kingpins who finance the Taliban insurgency would deliver in long-term towards defeating growing insurgency. It is time that United States and NATO should formulate a broad-based policy that can progressively dismantle the illegal market economy, rather than narrowly aim to eradicate the crop production.
Moreover, regional cooperation is an important factor that has been given too little attention in the past. Regional countries like Pakistan, Iran, Russian, and Central Asian States need to be taken on board, as these are the only countries that provide an access to Afghan poppy to the world's market. The new policy of interdiction on part of the US and NATO should not impede the capacity of Afghan government to build and develop an effective counter-narcotics strategy of their own.
Alongside, United States and NATO should work on building the Afghanistan counter-narcotics capacity that would provide an exit to NATO and the US from the opium problem, and they can concentrate more on counterinsurgency operations and developmental projects rather than being bogged down in anti-narcotics efforts.
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