Tehran leaders see limited western overtures to Damascus as futile. By Ebrahim Gilani in London (MR No. 28, 16-Mar-10)Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, recently feted in Damascus, believes that the West is not prepared to offer Syria serious incentives in order to separate it from Iran.
Only ten days after United States secretary of state Hillary Clinton told Congress that Washington wanted Syria to move away from Iran, the presidents of the two countries met in Damascus in late February.
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad joked that the message might have been lost in translation and the two sides instead signed a deal to cancel the visa requirement between them, wire services reported
The meeting comes as the Obama administration has said it will send an ambassador to Damascus after a five-year break, apparently hoping that it will loosen ties to Iran in exchange.
During the Damascus summit, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah joined the two leaders and held joint and separate meetings with them. The details of their meeting were not disclosed but what added to its importance was that there had been talk just before of a possible war between Israel and Lebanon or even Syria.
Prior to his Syrian visit, state-owned Iranian Press TV reported that Ahmadinejad told Nasrallah by phone, "The Zionist regime [Israel] must be finished off."
Ahmadinejad reportedly added, "The Iranian nation will stand side by side with the nations of the region and Lebanon in this regard."
The West appears to lack any way to come between Iran and Syria as both try to show that western pressures have only made their ties stronger.
The possibility of Syrian concessions in return for the dispatch of a US ambassador was dismissed by one commentator.
Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor of political sciences at Syracuse University in America, said, “These failed policies have already been tested by the administrations of Bush senior, Clinton and Bush junior.”
A European diplomat in London, speaking on condition of anonymity, said western countries have not made Syria any solid or credible promises. For him, it is only natural for Syria not to abandon its 30-year Iran policy, even if the US appoints an envoy to the country.
In recent years, Assad has proven to be a pragmatic politician who seeks better relations with the West. He does not shy away from negotiating with Israel and has even proposed mediating in Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West.
But maintaining close relations with Iran is a trump card that from his point of view should not be wasted over unreliable western promises.
A London-based Arab journalist believes that supporting Syria in taking back the Golan Heights - Syrian land taken by Israel in war in 1967 - might be a good deal to strike with Damascus in exchange for curbing its ties with Iran.
Syria analyst Fahmi al-Wahda, from the Centre for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, says the Golan Heights are a matter of honour for Syria and any negotiations have to take the issue into consideration.
Iran seems aware that the likelihood of such a deal is slight and therefore does not fear its consequences.
Hamid Ahmadi, professor of political science at the University of Tehran, told the Iranian Diplomacy website, “Even if Syria enters negotiations with Israel, the circumstances are such that it would not cool Tehran-Damascus relations. Iran currently needs Syria in the region and will not be giving it the brush-off.”
Prising the two countries apart would not be easy. Over the past three decades, Iran has been Syria’s main supplier of cheap oil and Syria is the only Arab country that took the side of non-Arab Iran during the eight-year Iraq-Iran war, resulting in its isolation by Arab states in the 1980s.
Analysts say an Iranian car plant in Syria that was inaugurated in 2007 will not have much economic benefit for Iran but it could be an example of the kind of incentive that could be offered by Iran to Syria in return for its role as Iran’s representative in the heart of volatile Middle East.
Ebrahim Gilani is the pseudonym of an Iranian journalist and foreign policy analyst based in London.
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