Middle East means Money

Fri, 29 Aug 2008 08:37:37 EST

Back in 2003 I was talking to a friend of British origin studying at the University College, London. We were having a general conversation when, without realising, we started discussing where each would like to settle down. After a little thought to the question, I answered southern France, whereas my friend promptly, without a second's delay snapped, Middle East and she was right.

This I realise today when taking in account an overview of the present development scenario of the Middle East. Her words still ring clear in my ears. "I'll finish my masters in history and will move to the Middle East where all the real money is. At least I'll become an English teacher and that, too, brings in a lot of dough, and after staying in the Middle East for 5 years and saving up, I'll move to Canada or some other peaceful place." That is foresight and preplanning and it says a lot. Although she is still in the UK, working for one of the world's leading refineries, what she said became the basis for my synoptic story of the Middle East as a part of the great globalisation wave where a new boom is being witnessed.

The Middle East saw its first boom in the 1970s. That was the first 'oil boom'. The second oil boom is a more recent phenomenon - with oil prices wavering in the $100 - $120-per-barrel, more than half a trillion dollars will eventually land in the OPEC treasury (no speculations here) - much more than at any time since the first boom.

The Mid East oil states alone will amass $320 billion in oil and gas export revenues as one of the leading newspapers of the gulf reports. So many figures and statistics that it is mind boggling. But boggle your mind while you can, it will help you make money.
Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia are the new hubs of world investment. The entire community of wealthy people worldwide is converging on this blessed land. This is the sort of investment that is said to be an investors' and contractors' dream come true. But first, let's generally follow the oil flow and the dollar charade. This is a multi-faceted story.

One with Dubai, the financial centre of the Middle East and North Africa, along with Egypt and Morocco. In the past two years, straight-upper-lipped British, expensively suited Americans, executives with their handheld devices tapping away in the lobbies of the classy hotels of the locale are charging for the kill, planning, strategising and keenly keeping tuned in with the stocks and real estate developers. As far as the stocks go, the greater Middle East, particularly the major oil-producing countries of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar are already flooded in oil money once again, after the lows of the 1990s.

The region's hiccupping economy has grown again in the past five years. In the past year, every one of the Middle East market indexes posted gains of more than 25% combined with high liquidity (a regional fiscal surplus of $1 trillion) spelling heaven for corporate giants like Merrill Lynch and Standard & Poor's and at the same time fuelling corporate wars in the region's development with other contenders - mainly of U.S. origin.

The city-state in the United Arab Emirates drew unparalleled attention globally in 2006, when government-owned Dubai Ports World, through its purchase of Britain's Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation Company for U.S.$ 6.8 billion, agreed to take over management of several major ports from New York to Miami. The deal evoked an outcry among western politicians that an Arab-owned company is not a safe bet with regard to the Al- Qaeda.

The west will keep on harping on this issue with no real connection to the whole development panorama - the present geopolitical climate scene. The clamour did indeed force the company to delay its plans in the U.S.

The Dubai Ports deal, though, was just one moderately small episode in the second outrageous Mid-East oil boom. The boom was branded by immensely determined projects that have started transforming the shores of the Persian Gulf into a paradise with some of the most incredible and decidedly expensive structures on Earth. The arrival of mega petro-dollars has created massive private and public wealth, rewriting the Gulf business and social development history.

Refocusing on Abu Dhabi once again, it was seen that the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre unified investors and managers, with queues of investment-minded people snaking around busy stands, providing first-hand evidence of the city's growing appeal. By the end of the 5-day show, the deals amounted to a colossal US$ 36 billion. This figure almost pales into insignificance when you refer to the report from the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which predicts that investment in construction and real estate will hit a confounding US$ 205 billion between today and 2012. No guesses necessary about what the second boom is.

UAE capital is earning around US$ 375 million a day from oil revenues. With this kind of dollar-bags dropping in everyday, the Middle Easterners are not only investing abroad in foreign ventures like the Dubai Ports but are also taking up major shares of US-based companies.

Unlike the first famous oil boom, which portrayed an unplanned spending spree that constituted their investing in banks, asset management and wealth management, the Mid-East has made a very strategic move into local development this time. They have imported the best engineers and builders, who willingly bowed to the sheiks wishes and started a glorious real estate development agenda in the region. The growth does not limit itself to Dubai, although Dubai was the first to have the world's largest building, the tallest structure and now the heaven reincarnated, Jumeriah, and its following projects. You name it, they got it. After all, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects oil and gas exports from the Middle East to bring in a whopping U.S. $940 billion to the region this year. Gulf governments are now spilling those proceeds - an estimated U.S. $225 billion - into infrastructure, finance and the social sector. The post oil era has begun.

Anyone today can buy into this phenomenal real estate boom. "This is going to be the future as you can see for yourself," says a top-ranking banking official. He further adds, referring to Dubai and Abu Dhabi while elusively avoiding any mention of Saudi Arabia, "They are developing right now. It is at this moment that everyone is investing because the returns are going to be sizeable and it is a wise investment anyway." Another banker just said beg, borrow or steal, but invest in the Middle East.

As for Saudi Arabia, around whose central economy the whole Middle East revolves, it is planning high valued ventures, too. Work has already begun with the projects underway to constructing four new cities in the Kingdom to cater to the growing population and some ambitious plans towards attracting foreign investments. The first of these multi-billion dollar cities is the 'King Abdullah Economic City' duly named after His Highness. All four cities are supposed to be completed by 2020.

At the moment, the Middle Easterners are spending their dollars wisely and appreciating the influx of foreigners for the first time. There are many questions that remain unasked and unanswered. The risk factor always tags along with every project ever started internationally. While the U.S. stands to gain significantly by pocketing major contracts in the region, there can be another scenario too which will empower the locals of the region to an unbelievable extent.

As global interest rates rise with the revival of Japan and Europe, global competition for capital will heat up and the well-heeled investors of the Middle East will become pivotal players in future deals. Oil money's role, then, could become stratospherically important. Still, Middle East means money right now.

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Middle East means Money